Since the Brexit vote, Theresa May has reserved the UK Government’s position on whether or not EU nationals currently resident in the
UK can remain here with the same rights as now.
Her logic is that this should form part of the Brexit deal negotiated
with the EU, in return for British nationals receiving similar guarantees.
While this caution is understandable, it does not stand up to rational and
moral analysis, and I will explain why in this article.
1. The human dimension
After 40 years of EU membership, the vote for Brexit was a
huge shock to everyone, not least to the 3 million EU nationals who have made
their home in the UK. 2 million of those
people are in work, and they account for 7% of the UK workforce. It is worth noting that the proportion of other
EU nationals of working age in work is higher (78%) than the equivalent for UK
nationals (74%).
The shock of Brexit has quickly given way to insecurity, fear, and anxiety. Brexit shakes the very foundations of careers, relationships, and whole lives built on the basis of the rights of EU nationals to live and work anywhere in the EU. The Brexit vote was also a clear protest against the numbers of EU nationals in the UK, who inevitably now feel less welcome. The well-documented rise in race hatred since Brexit heightens this anxiety.
EU nationals have been looking to the UK Government for guarantees. However, all they know so far is that their rights – and their lives – will go into the mix once Brexit negotiations are underway. On current timescales, their position will remain unclear for as long as 2.5 more years: that is a long time for anyone’s life to be on hold.
2. The moral dimension
If EU nationals currently in the UK lose their right to stay, then their current insecurity will intensify hugely as they become subject to whatever new regime takes its place. Those who lose rights to work and/or stay in the UK as a result of this process will be losing existing rights. The lives of people who came to the UK in good faith to work and live will be turned upside down. The immorality of doing this should be obvious to all.
Theresa May’s case is that stripping these rights would be a
last resort only in response to a similar decision by the EU (which I will come
on to later). But two wrongs do not make
a right. If a political decision is
immoral, then politicians should not be afraid of ruling it out as soon as
possible, even if only for the sake of their personal integrity, and no matter
who else is willing to take such an immoral decision.
3. The legal dimension
A decision by any country to strip residents of their rights
to live and/or work there is likely to lead to a morass of human rights litigation,
compensation claims, and widespread condemnation by international institutions
and other nations. The legal mess, and
the political and economic consequences for years to come would be incalculable.
4. The
economic dimension
Our economy depends on the contributions of EU nationals currently
working in the UK. Many technicians,
academics, and engineers, for example, plug UK skill shortages. (The UK is already suffering restrictions in
academic cooperation and recruitment.) Many
healthcare, factory, and agricultural workers plug labour shortages. The Brexit
vote instantly made the UK a less attractive place for them and others to work. Failing to guarantee their current rights to
live and work for up to another 2 or more years exacerbates this problem.
Both of these issues have also led to a significant loss of goodwill in Europe. Some of our exporters can exploit the strong pound for now, but somewhere along the line we will pay a price on export markets as European consumers and businesses think twice before buying British. Goodwill is essential to long-term business relationships.
A positive gesture and commitment from Theresa May to guarantee the rights of EU nationals would modestly lift the mood among those people affected and also on the markets, which respond to sentiment sometimes as much as to other more fundamental economic factors.
5. Political dimension
Now that we have a clearer picture of the downsides of the
UK’s approach, we need to weigh them in the balance: Theresa May wants to yield
these rights only once she is sure that the corresponding rights of UK citizens
in other EU countries will be safeguarded. Though formal discussions on this cannot begin
until the UK Government invokes Article 50, the EU wants the UK to do this
sooner rather than later. The currently delay on the issue being resolved is the
responsibility of the UK Government.
So far, no EU leader has publicly hinted that the rights of UK nationals will be up for discussion. Poland wants to ensure that the UK is not punished, and its 1 million citizens in the UK would have much to lose from any tit-for-tat measures. Angela Merkel has made conciliatory noises, and the idea of Germany pushing such a move is ridiculous.
If any EU nation was likely to make an issue, then we might expect France to. However, President Hollande has stated that UK nationals in France are welcome to stay as long as they want. No other EU leader slapped him down for speaking out of turn. In fact, for the EU to make proposals to restrict free movement and the right to work would be unprecedented and out-of-character. The same terrible legal consequences which I mentioned above would also apply to the EU. In short, the prospect of the EU making an issue of this is unthinkable.
Conclusion
The risk of the EU bargaining with the rights of UK citizens to live and work in the EU is minimal. The consequences of the UK reserving its rights on the issue as regards EU nationals in the UK are all bad. The UK Government has drawn a battle line in the upcoming Brexit negotiations where none needed to be drawn. Conspiracy theorists may argue that Theresa May’s tactics are more to do with her bargaining position on more vulnerable issues, like the City of London’s access to EU financial markets. However, such a position would be even more morally indefensible.
In conclusion, Mrs May has every reason to give an urgent, unilateral, categorical, humble, and warm reassurance to EU nationals now resident in the UK that their rights to live and work will be protected, no matter what.
Statistics from: https://fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/
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